Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, Feb. 21 : The March-April-May quarter may see above normal precipitation over the west coast and the central peninsula, according to a leading US forecaster.
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia has said in its latest forecast that the Karnataka-Goa belt, parts of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka may benefit from these summer showers.
The rest of the country is likely to receive normal rainfall.
But the regime would be subdued during the April-May-June quarter when only north Tamil Nadu (Around Chennai) is predicted to receive above normal showers.
MUTED MONSOON? Significantly, the May-June-July quarter that coincides with the onset and progress of the southwest monsoon may witness comparatively muted activity along the southwest coast.
Isolated blow-up of rains is indicated for the north Konkan region.
But the onset phase in Northeast India would be much more productive presumably under the cascading effect from a flurry of activity in the neighbouring Indo-China (Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam).
On the face of it, the less-than-enthusiastic outlook on the monsoon onset phase jells with the projection of a suspected negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event intervening to mark down its intensity.
But the last word on the Indian Ocean phenomenon may have not been said yet with a leading authority coming on record with the observation that he would not be surprised to see the reverse (as in a positive IOD) panning out towards the latter part of the year.
In a positive IOD event, the warming anomaly in the Indian Ocean shifts to the west, which is seen as being helpful for the concurrent Indian monsoon.
This is reversed in the case of the negative IOD event.
HEATING ON COURSE Gujarat and the entire northwest India, including Rajasthan, would witness above normal heating during the two quarters, according to the IRI outlook.
This is seen as a major facilitator for the pre-monsoon ‘heat low’ to build over northwest.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Friday that an incoming feeble western disturbance has set up base over Jammu and Kashmir.
This may help trigger isolated to scattered rain/snow over the western Himalayan region during the next two days.
Prevailing strong northwesterly winds over the Gangetic plains are expected to hold for another four days. They have brought down minimum temperatures over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
According to the IMD, rain or snow occurred at most places in Jammu and Kashmir and at many places in Himachal Pradesh on Friday. Rain or thundershowers was reported from isolated places in Punjab.
In the south, minimum temperatures were markedly below normal at one or two places over Rayalaseema, north interior Tamil Nadu and north interior Karnataka. Chamarajanagar recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 10 degree celsius in the plains of the region.